Population figures (FOI)

Request

Currently your population page is out of date with figures estimated for 2019 (estimate report labelled 20/06/18) -

Population estimates

A

I would like to ask for the official population figures for (failing official numbers, estimates will suffice):
2019
2020
2021

B

I would also like to know the estimated population figure for:
2022

C

Is there a reason this data has not been updated during the pandemic and is currently 3.5 years out of date on official government sites?

Response

A

The Jersey Census takes place once every decade. The latest census took place on 21 March 2021 and the data is provisionally due to be published in Quarter 1 to Quarter 2 2022. In between censuses, annual population estimates are produced which take the previous census population data, add on births and in-migration, and subtract deaths and out-migration. This is in line with international practice.

The 2019 population estimates are the official estimates and were published on 18 June 2020.

Population estimates

As with the run-up to previous census, population estimates for the end of 2020 were not produced because they would soon be superseded by results from the census. Likewise, population estimates were not produced for the end of 2021 as they would quickly become out of date once the 2021 census results were published. The information is therefore not held, as per Article 3 of the Freedom of Information (Jersey) Law 2011.

B

Population projections, which project the population into the future are based on a number of scenarios (for births, deaths, and in-and out-migration), are typically produced at the mid-point between the census. The last population projections were produced in October 2016 (and are available in the link below) and, in line with international practice, included short term (2025); medium term (2035); and long-term (2065) projections.

 Jersey Population Projection report 2016

Statistics Jersey will not update population projections until the census results are released. As with previous population projections, the projections would not be for individual years, but for short, medium and long-term periods in increments of ten years. Therefore, the information is not held, as per Article 3 of the Freedom of Information (Jersey) Law 2011.

The census results are due to be published in Quarter 1 to Quarter 2 of this year in line with the Statistics Jersey release schedule. Statistics Jersey will subsequently publish annual estimates for future years on a similar timescale as before (starting with estimates for the end of 2022, to be published in 2023).

 Publication release schedule (Statistics Jersey)

C

Please see above responses.

Article applied

Article 3  -   Meaning of "information held by a public authority" 

For the purposes of this Law, information is held by a public authority if –

(a)     it is held by the authority, otherwise than on behalf of another person; or

(b)     it is held by another person on behalf of the authority.