​​​​The report on Jersey's future housing needs provides estimates of Jersey's potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2016 to 2018. It gives a detailed picture of supply and demand based on household's intentions in mid-2015.

The information was collected through a set of questions included in the 2015 round of the Jersey Annual Social Survey.

Key find​ings

Based on the intentions of households (before applying affordability criteria) over the three-year period 2016 to 2018:

• there is a potential shortfall of more than 1,500 homes in the owner-occupier sector and in particular there is a large potential shortfall of 2-bedroom properties in this sector
• there is a potential shortfall of almost 1,500 units in the owner-occupier sector and in particular there is a large potential shortfall of 2- bedroom properties in this sector
• the overall supply of social housing is essentially the same as the potential demand
• the overall supply of private rental properties is essentially the same as the potential demand however there is a potential shortfall of over 300 2-bedroom units
• under the current level of net migration, overall supply of registered accommodation is essentially the same as the potential demand, however there is a potential shortfall of over 200 registered 1-bedroom units

Affordab​ility

When practical affordability criteria is applied:

• the potential shortfall of owner-occupier properties is substantially reduced
• there remains a potential shortfall of over 700 properties in the qualified sectors, largely as a result of increased shortfalls in the private rental sector

In respect of net migration:

• the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation (available to those with entitled and licensed residential qualifications) are only lightly impacted by the level of net inward migration during the next three years
• in order to avoid an overall  net shortfall of registered accommodation, net inward migration would need to be at or below 1,000 per annum over the next three year period
• in order to avoid a shortfall of 1-bedroom registered accommodation, net inward migration would need to be at or below 700 per annum over the next three year period
• if the level of net migration continued at the +1,500 rate experienced in the most recent year, there would be a net shortfall of almost 500 units of registered accommodation