Business Tendency Survey report March 2019
Produced by the
Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by
Statistics Jersey
and published on
17 Apr 2019
Prepared internally, no external cost
Summary
The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the island’s economy.
Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to 3 months earlier and their expectations for the next 3 months.
In March 2019:
- the headline all-sector business activity indicator was positive, at +13 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 13 pp greater than those reporting a decrease
- the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+39 pp) and neutral for the non-finance sector (+1 pp)
- the all-sector business activity indicator was essentially unchanged over the latest 3 months; the indicator increased by 11 pp for finance, and decreased marginally for non-finance (down 3 pp)
- 4 out of the 8 current indicators were positive, 2 were neutral and 2 were negative
- for the finance sector, 7 of the 8 current indicators were positive and 1 was negative
- for the non-finance sector, 1 of the 8 current indicators was positive, 3 were neutral and 4 were negative
- the finance sector was significantly more positive than non-finance in 7 of the 8 current indicators, and in 6 of them by at least 20 pp
- the overall picture was slightly more positive than last quarter; the only current indicator to change significantly was the product prices indicator, which increased
- for the finance sector indicators, there were 3 significant increases: business activity, product prices and employment
- for the non-finance sector indicators, there was 1 significant increase: the product prices indicator
- while the profitability indicator was negative (-11 pp) overall, it was positive for the finance sector (+16 pp) and negative for the non finance sector (-23 pp)
- half (50%) of companies reported higher input costs, producing a strongly negative indicator of 48 pp; this was more pronounced for non-finance companies (-60 pp) than finance companies (-21 pp)
Regarding the next quarter, the 3 months to June 2019:
- the outlook for future business activity was strongly positive (+25 pp) overall, with the finance sector being strongly positive (+39 pp) and non-finance positive (+19 pp)
- the future business activity indicator was significantly higher than last quarter, up 14 pp
- the future employment outlook was slightly positive (+7 pp) overall, with the finance sector being positive (+17 pp) and non-finance neutral (+3 pp)
- the future employment indicator was slightly higher than last quarter, up 4 pp
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