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Business Tendency Survey report June 2019

Produced by the Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by Statistics Jersey and published on 17 Jul 2019
Prepared internally, no external cost

Documents

Summary

The Business Tendency Survey (BTS) is a quarterly survey which provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.

Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

Business activity indicator

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was positive, at +16 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 16 pp greater than those reporting a decrease

    • the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+33 pp) and slightly positive for the non-finance sector (+8 pp)

    • the all-sector business activity indicator increased marginally over the latest three months (up 3 pp); the indicator decreased slightly by 6 pp for finance, and increased slightly for non finance (up 7 pp)

Current indicators

  • five of the eight current indicators were positive and three were negative

    • for the finance sector, five indicators were positive, one was negative and two were neutral

    • for the non-finance sector, three of the eight current indicators were positive, four were negative and one was neutral

  • the overall picture was essentially unchanged from last quarter; no current indicator changed significantly

    • while the finance sector was positive, it was significantly less positive than last quarter in four current indicators: new business, product prices, employment and business optimism

    • the non-finance sector was slightly more positive this quarter; the only significant change was in the profitability indicator, which was 10 pp higher than last quarter

Next quarter – the three months to September 2019

  • the outlook for future business activity was positive (+13 pp) overall, with the finance sector strongly positive (+28 pp) and the non-finance sector slightly positive (+6 pp)

    • the future business activity indicator was significantly lower than 3 months and 12 months ago, down 12 pp compared to both periods
  • the future employment outlook was marginally positive (+3 pp) overall, with finance positive (+18 pp) and non-finance slightly negative (-4 pp)
    • the future employment indicator was slightly lower than last quarter, down 4 pp, and was significantly lower than 12 months ago (down 13 pp)

2019 – Finance sector expectations

  • the employment expectations indicator for 2019 was strongly positive (+26 pp); 51% of finance companies predicted an increase, while 25% predicted a decrease

    • this indicator was essentially unchanged from December 2018, but was significantly lower on an annual basis, down 19 pp

  • the profit expectations indicator for 2019 was strongly positive (+59 pp); 68% of finance companies predicted an increase, compared to 9% that predicted a decrease

    • as with the future employment indicator, the expected profits indicator was unchanged from December 2018, but was significantly lower on an annual basis (down 21 pp)


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