Business Tendency Survey report December 2018
Produced by the
Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by
Statistics Jersey
and published on
06 Feb 2019
Prepared internally, no external cost
Summary
The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.
Chief
executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the
current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and
their expectations for the next three months.
In December 2018:
- the
headline all-sector business activity indicator was positive, at +11
percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses
reporting an increase was 11 pp greater than those reporting a decrease
- the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+28 pp) and marginally positive for the non-finance sector (+4 pp)
- the
all-sector business activity indicator decreased by 10 pp over the
latest three months, due to a decrease in the non-finance indicator of
14 pp; the finance sector indicator was unchanged
- four out of the eight current indicators were positive, two were neutral and two were negative
- for the finance sector, seven of the eight current indicators were positive and one was negative
- for the non-finance sector, two of the eight current indicators were positive, two were neutral and four were negative
- the finance sector was significantly more positive than non-finance in six of the eight current indicators
- the
overall picture was more negative than last quarter; of the three
current indicators to change significantly, all were decreases
- for the finance sector, there was one significant increase and one significant decrease
- for the non-finance sector, there was one significant increase and four significant decreases
- while
the profitability indicator was negative (-14 pp) overall, it was
positive for the finance sector (+7 pp) and negative for the non finance
sector (-23 pp)
- almost half (45%) of companies reported
higher input costs, producing a strongly negative indicator of -44 pp;
this was more pronounced for non-finance companies (-53 pp) than finance
companies (-22 pp)
Regarding the next quarter, the first three months of 2019:
- the
outlook for future business activity was positive (+11 pp) overall,
with the finance sector being strongly positive (+34 pp) and non-finance
neutral (+1 pp)
- the future business activity indicator was significantly lower than last quarter, down 10 pp
- the
future employment outlook was neutral (+3 pp) overall, with the finance
sector being positive (+12 pp) and non-finance neutral (-1 pp)
- the future employment indicator was significantly lower than last quarter, down 14 pp
Additional questions were asked of the finance sector:
- employment
expectations for 2019 were positive (+24 pp); 55% of finance companies
predicted an increase, while 30% predicted a decrease
- compared to expectations from December 2017, this indicator was significantly lower, down 25 pp
- profit
expectations for 2019 were strongly positive (+59 pp); 71% of finance
companies predicted an increase, compared to 12% that predicted a
decrease
- compared to expectations from December 2017, this indicator was significantly lower, down 16 pp