Population Projections 2023-2080
Produced by the
Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by
Statistics Jersey
and published on
20 Dec 2023
Prepared internally, no external cost
Summary
This report provides data on the projected future size and structure of Jersey’s resident population that would arise under particular scenarios of births, deaths and migration patterns.
The projections use a baseline of residents in Jersey based on the latest Jersey population and migration statistics. The population model uses this baseline population and projects the population forwards year by year, by adding births, subtracting deaths and adjusting for inward and outward migration.
It is important to note that the projections are not forecasts and so will differ from the actual future outcomes to a greater or lesser extent. They assume that current trends and behaviour in respect of fertility, mortality and migration continue forward over the projection period. Changes to these assumptions will impact the results, therefore the findings should be considered an estimate based on recent trends to inform decision making.
The projections are presented as a series of scenarios based on a set level of net migration experienced every year over the projection period. These are:
- -100 net migration: where 100 people leave the Island over and above the number that arrive.
- Net nil migration: where the number of people arriving equals the number of people leaving.
- +325 net migration: where 325 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.
- +700 net migration: where 700 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.
- +1,000 net migration: where 1,000 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.
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