States Treasury and Exchequer
Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group
Purpose
The group is established as an advisory function on the forecasts of all States income from taxation and social security contributions which will be informed by economic assumptions produced by the Fiscal Policy Panel.
Objectives
To produce an absolute minimum of two forecasts each year
- A full review of states tax, social security contributions and duty revenue forecasts will take place following the provisional outturn and no later than March of each year.
- A further forecast to inform the Budget debate, no later than September, including any revised economic assumptions and experience from the current year actual revenues.
- In an MTFP year, a further update will be considered between the full review in March and the actual lodging of the MTFP.
To produce reports on the forecasts of states income from taxation and social security contributions, including:
- Forecasts for income tax revenues
- Forecasts for goods and services tax and ISE Fees
- Forecasts for impots duties
- Forecasts for stamp duties
- Forecasts for social security contributions
- Economic assumptions used; and
- Factors and risks that should be considered
The forecasts will cover a period of at least four years and include a range within which a central forecast can be applied
Reporting
The reports will be presented to the Treasury and Resources Minister in advance of the Council of Ministers consideration.
Once a report is approved by the Treasury and Resources Minister it will be published alongside the Medium Term Financial Plan and the Budget.
Other reports can be prepared on the request of the Treasury and Resources Minister.
Administration
All meetings will be minuted with agreed actions.
Quorum – at least six of the ten members be present for the meetings to be considered quorate
Quarterly internal review meetings will also be held.
Any variations to the group membership once established to be agreed by the Treasury and Resources Minister or Chief Minister.
It will be the responsibility of the Chief Executive and Treasurer of the States to ensure that the group has sufficient resources to fulfil its responsibilities.
Group Membership
The members of the group are:
- Director General, States Treasury and Exchequer (Chair)
- Comptroller of Revenue
- Group Director, Financial Services and Digital Economy
- Group Director, Economy and Partnerships
- Director General, Customer and Local Services
- Adviser, International Affairs
- Deputy Comptroller of Revenue
- States Economic Adviser
- Up to two external members appointed by the Treasury and Resources Minister
The meetings of the group will be attended by the following officers in a supporting role:
- Head of Financial Planning (secretary)
- Finance Director, Income Tax
- Representative of the Economics Unit
The group will invite other officers and external advisers to attend as appropriate which will be documented.
The group will operate independent of any political influence.
Page 1 of 2 Revision to Terms of Reference – August 2018