Insights published on patterns in migration, employment, and low income during the COVID-19 pandemic using administrative data

15 December 2023

Migration

There was a notable change in migration patterns in 2019, just before the pandemic. Net migration became negative (outward) in 2019, driven largely by increased outward migration of the 30 to 49 years and 50 to 64 years age groups, and the Polish, Portuguese and Romanian nationalities. 

Inward migration of Polish, Portuguese and Romanian nationalities declined further in 2020 and 2021 resulting in an increasingly negative net migration for these groups over the three years 2019 to 2021.

In 2021 Jersey saw a net negative migration (more people leaving than arriving) for all age groups except those aged 30 to 49 years. The largest net outward migration in 2021 by nationality were those of British / Jersey nationality. 

Employment

In terms of the numbers of people working for an employer, particular decreases were seen between 2019 and the second quarter of 2020 for the following population groups:

• younger age groups: the youngest working age group of 16 to 29 years had the largest decrease (930, a decrease of 10%)
• people with White Portuguese or Madeiran, and White Other ethnicities
• people living in Social rent accommodation (the number of this population group working for an employer fell by 9%)
• people with no formal level of educational qualification (the number of this population group working for an employer fell by 7%)

The majority of population groups saw a full recovery in terms of how many were working for an employer. However lower numbers of people working for an employer were still being seen at the end of 2021 for: 

• younger working age groups (particularly those aged 16–29 years, and to a lesser extent those aged 30–39 years)
• people with White Portuguese or Madeiran, and White Other ethnicities
• people with no formal level of educational qualification​

Low income

The impact of the pandemic on low income was explored by looking at patterns in the numbers of population groups receiving income support. Notable increases in those receiving support were seen between 2019 and the second quarter of 2020 for the following population groups:

• people of working age (increases of between 24% and 31% in the number receiving income support); in particular younger working age groups (16-39 years) who had the steepest incline in the proportion receiving income support 
• people with White Romanian (36% increase) and White Polish (26% increase) ethnicities
• people who were working in Skilled trades occupations, Elementary occupations, Processing, plant and machinery occupations; and Caring, leisure and other service occupations at the time of the 2021 Census
  

The majority of population groups saw a full recovery by the end of 2021, with the same or lower numbers and proportions of each group receiving income support, compared to the end of 2019. 

Some population groups did see higher numbers receiving income support at the end of 2021 compared to the end of 2019, for example those aged 65 and over. Where this was seen, it was generally due to an increase in the size of the underlying population group over the three year period, rather than a greater proportion of the group continuing to be impacted. ​

Statistics Jersey have produced these statistics using administrative data (data that is already held by government for running public services). Administrative data is relatively current and wide-ranging and, when linked together, can produce insight into trends and changes for different population subgroups over extended periods of time.

​Read the full report:​

Over the pandemic - insights from patterns in migration, employment, and low income.pdf​