Population projections

The projections use a baseline of residents in Jersey based on the latest Jersey population and migration statis​tics. The population model uses this baseline population and projects the population forwards year by year, by adding births, subtracting deaths and adjusting for inward and outward migration.

It's important to note that the projections are not forecasts and so will differ from the actual future outcomes to a greater or lesser extent. They assume that current trends and behaviour in respect of fertility, mortality and migration continue forward over the projection period. Changes to these assumptions will impact the results, therefore the findings should be considered an estimate based on recent trends to inform decision making. 

The projections are presented as a series of scenarios based on a set level of net migration experienced every year over the projection period. These are:

• -100 net migration: where 100 people leave the Island over and above the number that arrive.
• net nil migration: where the number of people arriving equals the number of people leaving.
• +325 net migration: where 325 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.
• +700 net migration: where 700 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.
• +1,000 net migration: where 1,000 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.

Key findings

• The overall population size of Jersey over the population period is heavily influenced by the level of net migration experienced over that time. Broadly:
• Both the net nil and -100 net migration scenarios result in a decline in overall population.
  
• The +325 net migration scenario achieves the closest to a stable total population level, with a relatively low level of overall growth (an increase of less than 10% over the entire projection period) with the population reaching around 113,000 by 2080. 
• Both the +700 and +1,000 net migration scenarios result in an increase in overall population with the population reaching 142,000 and 166,000 by 2080 respectively.
• In all scenarios the number of children (aged under 16) is projected to reduce over the next 10-20 years.
  
• Regardless of the level of net migration experienced, in all scenarios the older aged population is expected to increase rapidly over the next 20-30 years. This is particularly the case for the older (over 75 and over 85) age groups which are expected to increase by around 50% over the next 20-30 years.
• Changes to the level of net migration primarily influences the working age population, with higher levels of net migration resulting in a lower dependency ratio over the period of the projections and the lower net migration scenarios experiencing much higher ratios, particularly in the first 20-30 years of the projections.
• The higher net migration scenarios are projected to result in an increase in both the licensed and registered populations over the next 10-years. In particular, under the +1,000 scenario the size of the registered population will more than double in that period.​