Covid-19 country risk classifications (FOI)

Request

Countries Risk Assessment Classification for Coronavirus

Please detail each of the measures used in the risk assessment process, including the weighting given to each measure.

Are there any other factors, besides the measures, which are used in this assessment? If so, please detail these and their relative weightings.

Response

The risk assessment process for country COVID classification is:

Step 1: Classification

Countries are assessed according to the most recent 14-day case notification rate per 100,000 population, published by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC). The recent trends of the notification rates are also reviewed as part of any re-classification considerations. Key assumptions include:

• the UK notification rate as of start of 1 July set the initial acceptable baseline level of risk

• UK designated corridor countries, from where there are no quarantine requirements as of 1 July, taken as the initial starting point for Green classification

• ‘Red’ countries are those which have been classified by the ECDC as having more than 120 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population.

The thresholds for each banding are:

Countries showing a trend that moves their rate closer to a threshold in either direction are reviewed.

Regional activity in countries with frequent travel links will be considered and included in the risk stratification where relevant / appropriate - for example, Madeira, Brittany or other locations where there is likely to be more frequent travel to Jersey.

There is no weighting system as there is only one measure used – the 14 day case notification rate per 100,000 population.

Step 2: Additional information

The following information is considered in the classification and monitoring of countries:

• UK 14-day case notification rate

• Jersey 14-day notification rate

• frequency of travel between Jersey and country of origin

• recent trends of case notification rates

• published (ECDC) testing rates

• WHO information on COVID new rates of positive cases in specific regions.

Step 3. Monitoring and Review - Decision Making

Individual decisions about country (including regions) reclassification are made by the Consultant in Communicable Disease Control each day.

New country classifications are published via media release, with changes made to the www.gov.je website and Safer Travel Policy guidance.

The Scientific and Technical Advisory Cell (STAC) also provide advice regarding Jersey’s Safer Travel Policy.