Covid-19 R number (FOI)

Request

In responding to the Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, an estimate of the reproductive rate r(t) for the virus will have been made to model the spread of the injection through Jersey’s population. This r(t) number would have been critical to deciding which measures to introduce or relax in managing the spread of the disease. In the early days of the pandemic (March 2020 to May 2020) an estimate of the r(t) number was made, however this information has not been published on the gov.je website since 14th May 2020. Last night the public in Jersey were informed that the r(t) number in Jersey was estimated to be between 1.6 and 2.0.

I would like to know:

A

The value of r(t) between 14 May 2020 and 3 December 2020 plotted against date and the figures incorporated into the data which already exists on the gov.je web site:

Statistics Jersey ; Estimate of Instantaneous 'R' Number

B

The date(s) on which the estimate of r(t) began to approach the value of one

C

The date(s) on which the Council of Ministers was informed that the estimate of r(t) began to approach the value of one

D

The date(s) on which the Council of Ministers decided to implement measures to reduce the r(t) in Jersey to a value of below one

E

The date(s) on which such measures were enacted or came into force.

Response

A

There was no estimate of the reproduction number (R number) from 14 May until 22 November as case numbers had been too low to calculate the R estimate.

An updated paper estimating the weekly reproduction number has been produced, since testing rates in Jersey have been relatively stable for long enough to meet a central assumption of the statistical model used to produce the estimate.

Please see the following link to relevant test and cases statistics:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) tests and cases in Jersey

Please see the following link to the latest reproduction number report:

'R' number report

Estimates are produced with the best available data at that point in time and may subsequently be revised as more data comes to light.

B

An early estimate of the R number for 30 November (produced and shown to the Competent Authorities Ministers on the 2 December) indicated that at that time the R was estimated to be between 1.6 to 2.0.

The report published on the 17 December estimated the R number for the 13 December was between 0.9 to 1.1. This report is attached.

This was revised in the report published a week later on 23 December as more information about positive cases in the week commencing 14 of December was reported (i.e. if an individual is positive, they may inform the contact tracer that their symptoms had started a few days before their positive result and as the statistical model uses symptom onset date as one of the parameters, this may cause past estimates to be revised for that period).

C and D

The Council of Minsters has not been presented with statistics on the R number, nor made decisions based on the R number.

The detailed response of the Executive to coronavirus has been undertaken by the Competent Authority group of Ministers, based on a range of information, including (but not in isolation) the R number estimate when available.

On 16 December, the Competent Authority Ministers were shown the data for the R number, as follows:

This information was included in the report published on 17 December, as provided at the following link:

Estimate of Rt - December 2020 Update

E

The main measures brought forward between September and December 2020 are scheduled below. Included in brackets is the date these measures were endorsed by Competent Authority Ministers (CAM) or the date designated if considered by another grouping.

• 26 October – Face masks strongly recommended in indoor public places (CAM 14 October)

• 02 November – Winter Strategy announced (CAM 14 October, and then Emergencies Council 21 October)

• 16 November – Enhanced border testing, additional care home testing, masks compulsory for older schoolchildren (CAM 11 November)

• 20 November – 10pm closing time introduced for hospitality; gatherings reduced from 20 to ten (CAM 11 November, subject to further advise from STAC and industry consultation)

• 30 November – Islanders requested to work from home where possible, workforce screening intensified and people over 70 advised not to socialise indoors with anyone outside of their household (CAM 29 November)

• 01 December – Mask legislation comes into force making the wearing of masks compulsory in indoor public spaces (agreed that drafting could commence, CAM 14 October, to be brought forward when required)

• 02 December – Enhanced guidance for high-risk Islanders (CAM 29 November)

• 04 December – Hospitality circuit breaker, gyms closed. 2m physical distancing reintroduced (CAM 2 December)

• 08 December – Suspension of care home visits (with exemptions for Christmas or end of life care) (CAM 07 December)

• 18 December – New advice warns against all indoor gatherings (except on Christmas Day and Boxing Day) (CAM 16 December);

• 18 December - announced school holiday extension of two days, with pupils now to start on 6 January (CAM 18 December)

• 21 December – All UK arrivals classed as “Red” (CAM 21 December)

• 23 December – Rule of ten extended to outdoor gatherings (Emergencies Council, 22 November)

• 24 December - Non-essential retail closed from 6.00 on 24 December (Emergencies Council, 22 November)