Government of Jersey

Childcare funding (FOI)

Produced by the Freedom of Information office
Authored by States of Jersey and published on 06 May 2016.

Request

Can you confirm the number of families affected by the proposed cut in childcare funding (20 hours of free nursery care) per year, as well as confirming what studies have gone into assessing the impact that this cutback will have on the families it will affect?

Response

There are a number of variables which need to be considered when estimating the number of families affected by the proposed cut in childcare funding (20 hours of free nursery care) per year.

This includes:

household income levels
predicted cohort numbers
the predicted proportion of children accessing both States nursery classes and private sector Nursery Education Fund (NEF) nurseries
the number of children accessing private nursery schools (not accessing the NEF)
the number of children not accessing any nursery provision.

For this reason, models have been developed which estimate the number of affected families (based on different scenarios) and these are included in the impact assessment below.

Impact assessment

The following modelling has been undertaken to predict the number of families affected by the introduction of means testing in Nursery Education Fund (NEF) private nurseries.

The calculations below have been based on the first three years of means testing (for the academic years 2017 / 18 to 2019 / 20).

During this period, the capacity of the States of Jersey nursery sector will rise from 545 places today to 623 in 2019 to 2020. New nurseries are planned to open as follows:

Springfield Primary School	26 places	2016 to 17
Trinity Primary School	26 places	2017 to 18
St Mary's Primary School	26 places	2019 to 20

It is then predicted that the number of places available in the States of Jersey and the NEF sector will be as follows:

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Cohort	1,037	960	1,065
States nursery class	597	597	623
NEF nurseries	341	266	342
Private nursery schools (non NEF)	73	73	73
Children not in nurseries (2.5% cohort)	26	24	27

From information provided by the Statistics Unit, it is predicted that means testing at a household income level of £75,000 will impact on 30% of households with at least one child under five.

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Predicted cohort size	1,037	960	1,065
Number of households earning over £75,000 (30%)	311	288	320

This figure is reduced further as there are a number of children accessing pre-school nursery education at a private school, independent of the NEF (all of whom, it is predicted, live in a household with an income above £75,000).

It is predicted this number will remain constant over the three years of the model and is estimated to be 73 per year.

The number of affected households, therefore, reduces to the following:

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Predicted cohort size	1,037	960	1,065
Number of households earning over £75,000 (30%) minus children from households attending non NEF private places (73)	238	215	247

The following predictions show the potential impact on users of private sector nurseries in different scenarios and the estimated savings that could be achieved. The savings target is set at £250,000.

The modelling to assess the impact of means testing is predicated on all States of Jersey nursery class places being filled.

Prediction 1

When the size of the States of Jersey nursery sector and private NEF sector are compared in proportion to one another the predicted number of affected parents is as follows:

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Number of households earning over £75k (30%) minus children from households attending non-NEF private places (73)	238	215	247
NEF to States proportion (e.g. proportion of all children in NEF nurseries compared to the proportion in States nursery classes)	36.4%	30.8%	35.5%
Number of households earning over £75k in States nursery classes nurseries	151	149	160
Number of affected households in Private NEF nurseries	87	66	87

This will then give an estimated saving of:

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Number of affected households in private NEF nurseries	87	66	87
Total saving before costs (e.g. additional administration to means test)	£340,518	£258,324	£340,518

Prediction 2

If an assumption is made that there is a higher proportion of affected parents in private NEF settings then the predicted number of affected parents is as follows:

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Number of households earning over £75k (30%) minus children from households attending non-NEF private places (73)	238	215	247
NEF to States proportion (e.g. proportion of all children in NEF nurseries compared to the proportion in States nursery classes)	50%	50%	50%
Number of households earning over £75k in States nursery classes nurseries	119	107	124
Number of affected households in Private NEF nurseries	119	108	123

This will then give an estimated saving of:

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Number of affected households in private NEF nurseries	119	108	123
Total saving before costs (e.g. additional administration to means test)	£465,766	£422,712	£481,422

Prediction 3

Increasing Means Testing Threshold to £100,000

If the means testing threshold was raised to £100,000 the savings are estimated to be (based on the same two scenarios presented above):

	2017 to 18	2018 to 19	2019 to 20
Number of affected households in Private NEF nurseries Based on current NEF to States proportion (e.g. proportion of all children in NEF nurseries compared to States nursery classes)	49	37	50
Total saving before costs (e.g. additional administration to means Test)	£191,786	£144,818	£195,700

Number of affected households in Private NEF nurseries Based on a higher proportion of affected parents in private NEF settings compared to States nursery classes	67	60	70
Total saving before costs (e.g. additional administration to means test)	£262,238	£234,840	£273,980