Disease projections 2016-2036 report

14 September 2017

This is the first report by the Public Health Statistics Unit to describe the potential level of occurrence of disease in Jersey, based on the current prevalence of disease combined with the projected future population, assuming the recent level of net inward migration continues. The results of this analysis demonstrate what may potentially happen if the current disease prevalence continues while the population increases and ages.

Main findings show:

• if the current age-specific prevalence of diseases/conditions continued together with the currently observed level of net inward migration, it is estimated that Jersey would expect to see an increase in patients with a number of chronic and serious diseases and conditions
• the projected increase in population size and change in its age profile will be reflected in an increase in GP consultations:
• it is estimated that there will be an additional 70,000 GP consultations each year by 2026, bringing the total to 502,000 (an increase of 16 per cent)
• by 2036, it is estimated there will be an additional 143,000 consultations compared to 2016 (an increase of 33 per cent) bringing the number of consultations to 575,000 per year
• projections for each disease show that:
• the number of people on the obesity register (people having a body mass index of 30 or more) is estimated to increase by more than a quarter (28 per cent) from 9,400 in 2016 to 12,000 in 2036, an increase of 2,600 people
• the number of people with hypertension is projected to be around 21,400 in 2036, an increase of 6,700 (46 per cent) compared to 2016
• the number of people with diabetes is estimated to increase from 3,600 in 2016 to 5,100 by 2036, an increase of 42 per cent
• heart failure is estimated to affect an additional 600 patients by 2036, increasing from 800 in 2016 to 1,400 by 2036, an increase of 75 per cent
• the number of people on the dementia register is estimated to double over the next 20 years, from 500 in 2016 to 1,000 in 2036
• the number of people on the coronary heart disease register is estimated to increase by more than three-fifths (63 per cent) from 2,400 in 2016 to 3,900 in 2036
• it is estimated that there will be an additional 900 patients on the stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) register by 2036, an increase of 64 per cent, from 1,400 people in 2016 to 2,300 in 2036
• the number of people with chronic kidney disease is estimated to increase from 2,700 on the register in 2016 to around 4,700 in two decades time, an increase of 74 per cent
• the number of people with asthma is estimated to increase by a quarter (25 per cent) over the next two decades, increasing from 5,200 in 2016 to 6,600 in 2036
• the number of patients requiring palliative care is estimated to almost double  over the next two decades, from around 400 currently on the palliative care register to around 800 by 2036
• the effect of the aging of the current population was explored by considering an (artificial) migration scenario of no inward or outward migration. The results of this exploratory analysis gave similar increases to the +1,000 net migration scenario for those conditions affecting mainly older populations, such as coronary heart disease and chronic kidney disease, indicating that the aging of the population is driving the increases in the numbers of people with these conditions independent of net inward migration. Conversely, net migration as well as the aging of the population influence those conditions that affect people across all age groups, such as asthma and obesity

Disease projections 2016-2036 report