27 February 2018
The Cancer Projections Report 2017-2037 by Statistics Jersey uses details from the 2016 Population Projections and Jersey’s most recent cancer incidence rates based on 2014 data.
The analysis in this report is based on two primary assumptions:
- that current patterns of cancer incidence will continue (i.e. no adjustments have been made for improvement or worsening of cancer rates)
- that net migration will continue at +1,000 people per annum over the next 20 years
A secondary analysis using a zero migration scenario was also conducted to establish the extent to which the ageing of the population or net inward migration drove the increases in numbers of people with cancer. Results from this analysis showed that, within the timescales of the next 20 years, cancer incidence numbers are similar whether the net +1,000 migration or the zero migration population projection models are used.
Main findings show:
- the incidence of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) is projected to rise by over 40 per cent by 2037, from an estimated 680 new cases per year in 2017 to 980 new cases per year in 2037
- consequently, by 2037 Jersey will see approximately 300 more new cancer diagnoses than the 680 new cases estimated in 2017
- non-melanoma skin cancer is considered separately due to its comparatively high incidence rate and low mortality rate
- incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer is projected to rise by over 50 per cent, from almost 1,300 in the three years 2015-2017 to almost 2,000 new cases in the three years 2035-2037
- other than non-melanoma skin cancer, the cancer types with highest incidence are prostate, breast, lung and colorectal cancer
- comparing the three year period 2015-2017 with 2035-2037
- incidence of prostate cancer is projected to rise by over 50 per cent in males, from 280 to 430 new cases over the respective three year periods
- in females, breast cancer is projected to rise by almost 30 per cent, from an incidence of 280 to 360
- lung cancer affects both males and females. Incidence is projected to rise by 55 per cent, from 220 to 340 new cases per three years
- the incidence of colorectal cancer, affecting both males and females, is projected to increase from 200 to 300, a 50 per cent rise
- the projected growth in cancer incidence rate is driven by the ageing of the population
Cancer Projections 2017-2037 report
gov.je