13 February 2025
The house price report for the fourth quarter 2024 has been published today by Statistics Jersey.
The Jersey House Price Index measures the combined average price of 1- and 2-bedroom flats together with 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom houses. The index includes properties transacted through the Royal Court as well as share transfer properties.
Context
2023 saw a significant proportion of transactions (39%) take place as the result of completions occurring in new developments. In contrast, 2024 saw a much lower proportion of transactions (9%) take place as the result of new developments. Adjusting for this, the level of turnover in 2024 would be 25% higher when compared to 2023 (rather than 16% lower), when excluding new builds in both years.
It is worth noting that phases one and two of the First Step scheme completed sales during Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 respectively. 33 HPI eligible properties (around 5% of annual turnover) were sold as part of the scheme and assisted with the sale of 9 further properties indirectly, because of chains started by First Step purchases.
Annual Summary
In 2024:
- on a calendar year basis:
- the Jersey House Price Index was 8% lower than in 2023, which was:
- the largest annual decrease in price since at least 1986
- all property types saw decreases in annual mean and median prices
- advertised private sector rental prices were 1% lower than in 2023
- turnover of properties was 16% lower compared with 2023, due to decreased sales of flats (down by 42%); 2024 saw the lowest annual turnover since at least 2002
- overall housing affordability improved on an annual basis:
- all property types were more affordable to purchase than in 2023
- a working household with mean net income was able to service a mortgage affordably on the purchase price of a median-priced 1-bedroom flat
- a working household with mean net income was not able to service a mortgage affordably on the purchase price of a median-priced house of any size or a 2-bedroom flat
- the ratio of median dwelling price to equivalised median household income in Jersey was lower compared to 2023 for all property types
Quarterly Summary
In the fourth quarter of 2024:
- on a rolling four-quarter basis, the mix-adjusted average price of dwellings sold in Jersey during the year ending Q4 2024 was 1% lower when compared with the previous quarter (year ending Q3 2024)
- on a quarterly basis:
- the seasonally adjusted mix-adjusted average price was 1% higher than in the previous quarter and 5% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (Q4 2023)
- the HPI was 10% lower than the peak in prices seen in Q2 2022
- 1- and 2-bedroom flats saw an increase in their mean price compared to the previous quarter
- 2- and 4-bedroom houses saw a decrease in price compared with the previous quarter
- 3-bedroom houses were essentially unchanged compared with the previous quarter
- the turnover of properties was 7% higher than in Q4 2023 and 9% higher than in the previous quarter (Q3 2024)
- overall housing market activity, on a rolling four-quarter basis, was essentially unchanged compared with the previous quarter (Q3 2024) and 23% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2023
- on a rolling four-quarter basis, advertised private sector rental prices were essentially unchanged during the year ending Q4 2024 compared with the year ending Q3 2024
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