Jersey population calculation (FOI)

Request

Please may I request the complete information as to how the population of Jersey is calculated? By this I mean who is counted and how it is arrived at.

Response

The population of Jersey is counted at an individual level during a Census, which generally takes place every 10 years, the most recent one of which was held on 27 March 2011. 

The 2011 Census involved field staff visiting every household in Jersey and delivering a census questionnaire. 

A team of collection officers returned repeatedly to non-responding households to ensure a census questionnaire was completed for every occupied household in Jersey. 

Since 2001, except for the year of the census, the Statistics Unit has also produced estimates of the total population using the following methodology:

• the 2011 census provides a baseline measure of total population at that point in time

• the change in population each year subsequent to the census is then estimated by adding on:

• the change in total number of Licensed and Registered workers, as measured by the Manpower Survey in December of each year: each business is required to report on the numbers of employees working for them

• an estimate of the number of non-economically active adults who would migrate with those Licensed and Registered workers: estimated using parameters from the 2011 census information

• an estimate of the number of Licensed and Registered workers and their non-economically active dependents who stay in Jersey and achieve residentially qualified status each year: estimated using parameters from the 2011 census information

• the net migration of pre-school aged children, calculated from information on pre-school aged children known to be resident in Jersey by the Child Health team

• the net migration of school aged children, calculated from information held by the Education Department on the children of compulsory school age

• the number of births, minus the number of deaths

As is apparent from the above, the annual Jersey Resident Population Estimate provides an estimate of total population, and uses a number of estimation parameters derived from 2011 Census data which are then applied to the available administrative data sources. 

The methodology is also outlined at the back of the below report. 

Population estimates