Business Tendency Survey June 2020
Produced by the
Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by
Statistics Jersey
and published on
23 Jul 2020
Prepared internally, no external cost
Summary
The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.
Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.
Business activity indicator
- the
headline all-sector business activity indicator was extremely negative,
at -62 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses
reporting an increase was 62 pp lower than those reporting a decrease
- the
business activity indicator was negative for the finance sector (-21
pp) and was extremely negative for the non-finance sector (-80 pp)
- this indicator recorded its lowest level to date, overall and for both finance and non-finance
- the
business activity indicator decreased significantly over the three
months to June, overall and for both finance and non-finance, with each
decrease being the largest recorded to date
Current indicators
- six of the eight current indicators were significantly negative, and none were significantly positive
- for the finance sector, there were four negative indicators, one positive indicator, and three indicators within 10 pp of zero
- for the non-finance sector, seven of the eight current indicators were negative, and one was within 10 pp of zero
- the
overall picture was significantly more negative than last quarter;
seven current indicators decreased significantly and one (input costs)
improved significantly
- the
finance sector was more negative than in March 2020 in three current
indicators, more positive in one (input costs), and four indicators
changed by less than 10 pp
- the
non-finance sector was more negative than last quarter in seven current
indicators, and more positive in one indicator (input costs)
- six
of the eight current indicators recorded their lowest levels to date,
three of which were more than 20 pp below the previous recorded
respective minima
Current situation: COVID-19
- the turnover indicator was extremely negative at -75 pp
- the actively working indicator was extremely negative at -51 pp
- the most commonly cited workforce measure taken in response to COVID-19 was to enrol in the government Co-Funded Payroll Scheme
Next quarter – the three months to September 2020
- the
outlook for future business activity was negative (-14 pp) overall, and
the indicator was strongly negative for finance (-32 pp) and within 10
pp of zero for non-finance (-6 pp)
- the
overall future business activity indicator was slightly more positive
than 3 months ago, up 9 pp from the lowest recorded level of -23 pp in
March 2020
- the
overall future employment outlook was within 10 pp of zero (-7 pp), as
it was for finance (+8 pp), while it was negative for non finance (-13
pp)
- the future employment indicator was down 9 pp from last quarter overall, and was down 8 pp for both finance and non-finance
2020 – Finance sector expectations
- the employment expectations indicator for 2020 was negative (-19 pp)
- the
balance for this indicator was the lowest recorded to date, the first
negative recorded, and was 43 pp lower than in June 2019
- the
profit expectations indicator for 2020 was strongly negative (-30 pp);
62% of finance companies anticipated a decrease in profits in 2020,
compared to 32% that anticipated an increase
- the
expected profits indicator was also the lowest recorded to date, the
first negative balance recorded, and was 85 pp lower than in June 2019
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