This report describes the potential future levels of cancer incidence in Jersey, based on the current incidence rates combined with the projected future population. The population projections assume that the recent level of net migration continues. The results of this analysis demonstrate what will happen if the current cancer incidence rates continue while the population continues to age and increase over the next twenty years at current fertility, mortality and migration rates.

The report projects figures for all cancers together (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers), and the main cancer types seen in Jersey (non-melanoma skin cancer, prostate, breast, lung and colorectal cancers).

This report firstly considers all cancers together (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer). The most recent (2014) age-and-sex-specific cancer incidence rates are shown, followed by the projected incidence in 2017, 2027 and 2037. Due to the smaller incidences of prostate, breast, lung, and colorectal cancer in Jersey, incidence rates for these cancers are calculated over three year intervals. Incidence rates of non-melanoma skin cancer are also calculated over a three year interval for comparability. Incidence of other cancer types are small and have not been individually projected.
The projected numbers are presented as population pyramids for each cancer type.