Income Forecasting Group (IFG): Terms of reference revised to permit appointment of 2 external members

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A decision made 5 January 2016:

Decision Reference: MD-TR-2016-0001
Decision Summary Title:	Revise the ToR for the Income Forecasting Group (IFG)		Date of Decision Summary:	05 January 2016
Decision Summary Author:	Head of Financial Planning		Decision Summary: Public or Exempt?	Public
Type of Report: Oral or Written?	Written		Person Giving Oral Report:	N/A
Written Report Title:	Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group		Date of Written Report:	05 January 2016
Written Report Author:	Head of Financial Planning		Written Report : Public or Exempt?	Public
Subject: To revise the Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group (IFG).
Decision(s): The Minister decided to revise the Terms of Reference for the IFG to allow up to two external members.
Reason(s) for Decision: Following the establishment of the IFG, under Ministerial Decision MD-TR-2014-0153, the Minister is taking the opportunity to further broaden the experience and expertise contributing to States income forecasts ahead of the MTFP Addition in June 2016.
Resource Implications: There are no financial or manpower implications as a result of the approval of this Ministerial Decision.
Action required: The Head of Financial Planning, as Secretary to the IFG, to initiate a recruitment process.
Signature:		Position: Senator A J H Maclean, Minister for Treasury and Resources
Date Signed:		Date of Decision:

Income Forecasting Group (IFG): Terms of reference revised to permit appointment of 2 external members

Treasury and Resources

Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group

Purpose

The group is established as an advisory function on the forecasts of all States income from taxation and social security contributions which will be informed by economic assumptions produced by the Fiscal Policy Panel.

Objectives

To produce an absolute minimum of two forecasts each year

A full review of states tax, social security contributions and duty revenue forecasts will take place following the provisional outturn and no later than March of each year.
A further forecast to inform the Budget debate, no later than September, including any revised economic assumptions and experience from the current year actual revenues.
In an MTFP year, a further update will be considered between the full review in March and the actual lodging of the MTFP.

To produce reports on the forecasts of states income from taxation and social security contributions, including:

Forecasts for income tax revenues
Forecasts for goods and services tax and ISE Fees
Forecasts for impots duties
Forecasts for stamp duties
Forecasts for social security contributions
Economic assumptions used; and
Factors and risks that should be considered

The forecasts will cover a period of at least four years and include a range within which a central forecast can be applied

Reporting

The reports will be presented to the Treasury and Resources Minister in advance of the Council of Ministers consideration.

Once a report is approved by the Treasury and Resources Minister it will be published alongside the Medium Term Financial Plan and the Budget.

Other reports can be prepared on the request of the Treasury and Resources Minister.

Administration

All meetings will be minuted with agreed actions.

Quorum – at least six of the ten members be present for the meetings to be considered quorate

Quarterly internal review meetings will also be held.

Any variations to the group membership once established to be agreed by the Treasury and Resources Minister or Chief Minister.

It will be the responsibility of the Chief Executive and Treasurer of the States to ensure that the group has sufficient resources to fulfil its responsibilities.

Group Membership

The members of the group are:

Treasurer of the States of Jersey (Chair)
Comptroller of Taxes
Director of Financial Services
Chief Officer, Economic Development
Chief Officer, Social Security
Adviser, International Affairs
Deputy Director of Tax Policy
States Economic Adviser
Up to two external members appointed by the Treasury and Resources Minister

The meetings of the group will be attended by the following officers in a supporting role

Head of financial planning (secretary)
Finance director, Income Tax
Economist

The group will invite other officers and external advisers to attend as appropriate which will be documented.

The group will operate independent of any political influence.

Page 1 of 2 Revision to Terms of Reference – January 2016