Income Forecasting Group: Terms of Reference: Revised

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A decision made 17 August 2018:

Decision Reference: MD-TR-2018-0111
Decision Summary Title:	Revise the ToR for the Income Forecasting Group (IFG)		Date of Decision Summary:	08th August 2018
Decision Summary Author:	Director of Financial Planning and Performance		Decision Summary: Public or Exempt?	Public
Type of Report: Oral or Written?	Written		Person Giving Oral Report:	N/A
Written Report Title:	Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group		Date of Written Report:	08th August 2018
Written Report Author:	Finance Manager, Financial Planning		Written Report : Public or Exempt?	Public
Subject: To revise the Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group (IFG).
Decision(s): The Minister decided to revise the Terms of Reference for the IFG to amend some of the job titles of the members of the group.
Reason(s) for Decision: The Terms of Reference require to be updated as some of the group members’ job titles have recently been amended.
Resource Implications: There are no financial or manpower implications as a result of the approval of this Ministerial Decision.
Action required: The Head of Decision Support to notify the Treasurer of the States that the revised Terms of Reference have been approved.
Signature:		Position: Deputy S J Pinel, Minister for Treasury and Resources
Date Signed:		Date of Decision:

Income Forcasting Group: Terms of Reference: Revised

States Treasury and Exchequer

Terms of Reference for the Income Forecasting Group

Purpose

The group is established as an advisory function on the forecasts of all States income from taxation and social security contributions which will be informed by economic assumptions produced by the Fiscal Policy Panel.

Objectives

To produce an absolute minimum of two forecasts each year

A full review of states tax, social security contributions and duty revenue forecasts will take place following the provisional outturn and no later than March of each year.
A further forecast to inform the Budget debate, no later than September, including any revised economic assumptions and experience from the current year actual revenues.
In an MTFP year, a further update will be considered between the full review in March and the actual lodging of the MTFP.

To produce reports on the forecasts of states income from taxation and social security contributions, including:

Forecasts for income tax revenues
Forecasts for goods and services tax and ISE Fees
Forecasts for impots duties
Forecasts for stamp duties
Forecasts for social security contributions
Economic assumptions used; and
Factors and risks that should be considered

The forecasts will cover a period of at least four years and include a range within which a central forecast can be applied

Reporting

The reports will be presented to the Treasury and Resources Minister in advance of the Council of Ministers consideration.

Once a report is approved by the Treasury and Resources Minister it will be published alongside the Medium Term Financial Plan and the Budget.

Other reports can be prepared on the request of the Treasury and Resources Minister.

Administration

All meetings will be minuted with agreed actions.

Quorum – at least six of the ten members be present for the meetings to be considered quorate

Quarterly internal review meetings will also be held.

Any variations to the group membership once established to be agreed by the Treasury and Resources Minister or Chief Minister.

It will be the responsibility of the Chief Executive and Treasurer of the States to ensure that the group has sufficient resources to fulfil its responsibilities.

Group Membership

The members of the group are:

Director General, States Treasury and Exchequer (Chair)
Comptroller of Revenue
Group Director, Financial Services and Digital Economy
Group Director, Economy and Partnerships
Director General, Customer and Local Services
Adviser, International Affairs
Deputy Comptroller of Revenue
States Economic Adviser
Up to two external members appointed by the Treasury and Resources Minister

The meetings of the group will be attended by the following officers in a supporting role:

Head of Financial Planning (secretary)
Finance Director, Income Tax
Representative of the Economics Unit

The group will invite other officers and external advisers to attend as appropriate which will be documented.

The group will operate independent of any political influence.

Page 1 of 2 Revision to Terms of Reference – August 2018