14 February 2008
We are now nearing the end of the current consultation on Imagine Jersey 2035. An analysis of its findings will be used to inform a general, high level States debate on the key messages to come out of it. I do not think it would be right for the States to try and take firm decisions this year, but I do think we owe it to the Island to consider the over-arching policy options in a debate which will help identify the main issues for the next House to consider after the elections.
The Council of Ministers instituted Imagine Jersey 2035 to find out how islanders want their island to move forward into a changing future; what their hopes, fears and aspirations are and how they are prepared to allow our Island to change to meet new challenges. This consultation process has created a more focussed and open way of addressing these questions than we have seen in any other jurisdiction.
We have no favoured options in mind, and no hidden agenda. We all want to protect our quality of life. We will all have to work to create a sustainable community which islanders can take pride in and to manage the demands of business and natural environment.
In order to have an informed debate, it’s essential that the facts and figures presented to the public are as accurate as possible. In preparing the background reports for Imagine Jersey 2035 we used the latest data available, and presented it in as clear a way as possible.
By 2035 the retired population in Jersey will grow by 70%, while numbers of people of working age could decline by 25% and the numbers of young people in our schools will have fallen by 28% to just over 11,000 under-16s. Based on the current resident population, if we don’t take action we could be heading for a potential deficit of £140 million per year. By 2035 if we do not address the issue that deficit will have totalled £1.6bn.
In preparing the Imagine Jersey consultation document we offered four possible options to meet these challenges: - further growth in the economy, working longer, asking the resident population to pay more for services, and allowing more people to live in Jersey .
We gave detailed information on each of the four options as part of the consultation process. That included a report which summarised all the issues; a more detailed explanation from the Officer Working Group, and individual working papers on specific subjects - Environment, Planning, Housing, Education and Infrastructure.
The consultation paper explores how these four options interact and it presents scenarios to illustrate the choices that could be made. The five scenarios refer to all four options, not just to population growth. In each scenario it is made clear how choices on each of the options could be made and how the overall implications will impact on society, the economy, infrastructure and the environment. These scenarios, which were designed to develop an understanding of the options available, take into account how choosing one option will affect another.
For instance the zero inward migration option offers the option of raising £60 million through increasing taxes and contributions as a trade-off for limiting population. At the other extreme, the 650 new resident heads of household per year scenario makes clear that while extra people would bring in enough tax revenue to balance Jersey’s budget, the island would need to spend a significant amount of money on dealing with all the extra waste, on providing enough electricity, sewage and water treatment to meet the needs of such a large population. It also shows how such an influx of migrants would fundamentally change the Island .
In this way the scenarios make clear the interdependence between the four options, and how choosing one affects the others. They were designed as a starting point for discussion. They are not solutions to the problem, but an illustration of the range of choices available to address the issue.
The Imagine Jersey 2035 public conference used this data to structure a day of discussion about the issues, and was well-received by the majority of those who attended. 78% were satisfied with how the day was run; 84% felt they had had their say and 91% enjoyed the day.
There has been some reference during the public debate about Imagine Jersey 2035 to the last report by the government actuary on the Social Security system. Some have suggested it shows a different picture to that of the analysis underpinning Imagine Jersey. This is most definitely not the case. The UK actuary's latest report shows that the break-even contribution rate – the rate required for a pure Pay As You Go approach - in 2033, assuming no inward migration, is 18%. That is significantly more than our current rate of 10.5%, and it confirms rather than contradicts the Imagine Jersey analysis.
Therefore rather than conflicting with the information presented it shows the ageing population will place significant stress on our economy and for social security purposes a significant rise in contribution rates would be required to maintain the system on a Pay As You Go basis if no inward migration were allowed.
Until Imagine Jersey 2035 has been concluded and responses analysed, it will not be possible to consider exactly what form a report to the States before the summer recess may take. It will however focus on a strategic direction, rather than specific policy proposals.
One of the key messages I’ve taken away from this consultation process is the public’s clear opposition to building on green fields. I support the desire to retain Jersey ’s unique countryside and this would be one of my fundamental requirements around which the future should be built. I am sure that it will be possible to achieve a balance between the need to retain a strong economy while also protecting the island’s environment.
I remain convinced that we must keep Jersey special and create a sustainable future. If we are to work towards a positive future for the island, in the face of changing demographics, some action is clearly needed, and that is the debate the Council of Ministers has been trying to instigate with Imagine Jersey 2035 .
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