Future Housing Needs Report 2019-2021

28 March 2019

Statistics Jersey has today published Jersey's Future Housing Needs report. This report provides estimates of Jersey’s potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2019 to 2021 in terms of the type, tenure and size of dwelling unit.

Key findings

Based on the intentions of households, and before applying affordability criteria, over the three year period from 2019 to 2021:

before the supply of new dwellings, there is an overall anticipated shortfall of 2,750 dwelling units
there is a potential shortfall of around 1,830 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there is a large potential shortfall of 3-bedroom properties in this sector
under current migration trends, there is a potential shortfall of around 600 units of registered accommodation; in particular, there is a potential shortfall of 2-bedroom properties in this sector
the previous round of this survey (relating to 2015-2018) recorded a potential surplus of registered accommodation; the latest potential shortfall has been largely driven by recent levels of migration

In respect of net migration:

the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation are impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the next three years, than registered accommodation
a level of net inward migration of around +500 people per year results in a potential net nil provision of registered accommodation over the next three years
a level of net inward migration of around +700 people per year results in a potential shortfall of almost 300 registered accommodation units over the next three years

In respect of affordability - applying practical affordability criteria (using lower quartile property prices):

reduces the levels of the potential shortfalls in the owner-occupier sector implied by expressed intention alone
in particular, the shortfall of 2- and 3-bedroom owner-occupier properties is substantially reduced

Jersey's Future Housing Needs report 2019-2021