24 May 2023
Statistics Jersey has today published Jersey's Future Housing Needs report. This report provides estimates of Jersey’s potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2023 to 2025 in terms of the type, tenure and size of dwelling unit.
Context
The survey responses which form part of the calculations for this report are from intentions given in the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey 2022. Survey responses were collected during June and July 2022 and will represent the intentions of Islanders at that time. Between July 2022 and the publication of this Housing Needs report, there were large increases in interest rates, with the Bank of England base rate increasing from 1.25% to 4.5% (3.25 percentage points) over that period. This will have had an impact on the intentions of those households looking to purchase a property with a mortgage.
While some households may no longer look for property in the owner-occupied sector, most of these households will still require property of some kind. Therefore, while overall totals should be largely unaffected by these changes, the apportionment of owner occupier and qualified rental demand in 2023 to 2025 may be different to the proportions described in this report.
Summary
Based on the intentions of households, and before applying affordability criteria, over the three year period from 2023 to 2025:
- before the supply of new dwellings, there is a net shortfall of 610 units, driven by:
- an anticipated shortfall of 1,590 smaller sized dwelling units
- an anticipated surplus of 980 larger sized dwelling units
- there is a potential shortfall of around 910 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there is a potential shortfall of 770, 2-bedroom properties in this sector
- under the baseline scenario of +700 net migration, there is a potential shortfall of around 220 units of registered accommodation; in particular, there is a potential shortfall of 1-bedroom properties in this sector
In respect of net migration:
- the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation are impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the next three years, than registered accommodation
- a level of net inward migration of around +500 people per year results in a balanced supply and demand of registered accommodation over the next three years
- a level of net inward migration of around +1,000 people per year results in a potential shortfall of 550 registered accommodation units over the next three years
- there was an increase in the proportion of the respondents intending to move outside Jersey compared to the previous survey (from 13% in 2018, to 34% in 2022)
In respect of affordability - applying practical affordability criteria (using lower quartile property prices), sees the owner-occupier sector with a surplus of properties, rather than a shortfall. In particular:
- the shortfall of 2- and 3-bedroom owner-occupier properties is substantially reduced as households are instead accommodated in the rental sector
- 1- bedroom owner-occupier properties see a small surplus, rather than a shortfall
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